PARTY

The European debt crisis, the road in He Fang
At the end of December 9th the European Union summit, the EU except outside the UK 's 26 member states agreed to conclude with strong binding" financial contract", through the agreement between the government of means to strengthen fiscal discipline. " The contract" will lead the euro zone out of the sunken mire? In an interview with the European experts,johnson baby shampoo China Institute of contemporary international relations of the assistant director of the Institute of Wang Shuo.
The long march is the first step
Reporter: some people think that the December 9th summit concluded " the contract" marks the European debt crisis started from palliative to effect a permanent cure, what do you see?
Wang Shuo: the final decision December 9th summit, 26 member states will sign an intergovernmental agreement, the specific content includes: the structural deficit of GDP ratio does not exceed 0.5% of the basic principle in the law of countries, if more than 3% will start the automatic punishment mechanism, the European Court of justice has the right to supervise national budget. Cooperating with this is, the 27 EU countries the central bank will be bilateral loans form to the IMF ( International Monetary Fund) injection of 200000000000 euros, with enhanced IMF rescue of European debt crisis financial capacity, which actually bypasses the members can't direct relief provisions.
Objectively speaking, this move in the right direction, can be said to finance the direction of integration step, while enhancing the ability of rescue, but it can not be said the EU deal with the debt crisis is the essence of the change.
First of all, the agreement is still far away from the real meaning of the finance alliance, national budgetary decisions or master in their hands, taxes are not uniform, so this is only a unified standard, strict supervision of the League of finance.
Secondly, this is the first step of the Long March,JOHNSON Shampoo the back of each member country transferred sovereignty to more, go up more difficult, now the UK had opposed. And this agreement by next March national parliaments can, can come is still difficult to determine.
Thirdly, the situation nots allow you to do so. Recently, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's time will the Eurozone 15 country and EFSF 's rating outlook to negative, means that in the future 90 days half may down-regulate some ratings. If the ratings downgrades, means that the financing cost is climbed considerably litre, market may not let you so slowly planning long-term reform. The last is not necessarily solve the problem. Because the light to tighten their belt life is not enough, only later to minimize the debt, but the original debt or not. Debt need to make money, is to rely on economic growth stimulate the increase of financial revenue, and the light can inhibit the growth of austerity. The end is the first deficit reduction or growth, is to reform or first aid itself there is a contradiction.
Financial contract cannot solve all the problems put things right once and for all
Reporter:" the contract" can put things right once and for all to solve the debt crisis? Whether from the European debt crisis will turn "crisis" into" opportunity"? The future will likely encounter what problem?
Wang Shuo: the European debt crisis causes of complex, its solution is not a short duration of time. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted, the European debt crisis is a long-term problem. The European debt crisis development does not arrive inflection point, Italy, Spain, not out of danger, than austerity also convince the market, the EU also have more and more ways to.
I think the future problems mainly in the following aspects.
One is to reduce the debt financing cost. That is to say, to make these countries can also afford costs continue to borrow money, to borrow new debt to return old debts, avoid bankruptcy. Two is the elimination of internal differences. Around the European debt crisis, Franco-German, the euro zone between North and south, the EU and Euro euro zone differences between continuously, although we try to reach a compromise, but interest conflict is inevitable, the EU together is not easy. The three is to solve social problems. Crunch led some states to strike a massive parade constantly,L-Carnitine seriously affect the normal operation of the national policy of the government, even limited change, restricted the government's ability to cope with the crisis. Four problems in the financial system. The European banking industry because of the subprime mortgage crisis and financial tsunami large losses, now more because of their sovereign bonds devaluation losses, the EU and require them to the Greek debt writedowns on 50%, banking is one disaster after another. But the banking industry to a problem, for the European economy and society it is disastrous. The five is economic growth. The recent OECD forecast, the euro zone growth next year is only 0.2%, which belongs to a mild recession. Austerity led the government to reduce public spending cuts in welfare, makes people reluctant to spend, bank risk reluctant to lend, make it difficult to see signs of economic recovery in europe.